‘OFFSHORE TRILLIONS’
[Letter to the Editor, and Response]
“Cass Sunstein’s review of Gabriel Zucman’s The Hidden Wealth of Nations [New York Review, January 14,
2016] erroneously claims
that ‘Zucman is the first economist to produce specific
numbers of this kind.’ Actually, economists have been estimating the volume of missing
offshore wealth for decades. For instance, in 2005 British economists Richard Murphy
and John Christensen produced a widely published $11.5 trillion estimate. In 2011
James S. Henry, formerly director of economic research for McKinsey & Co., was
commissioned by the Tax Justice Network to compile detailed estimates of offshore
private wealth. Triangulating with three independent methodologies, including
extensive statistical analysis and ‘investigative economics’ involving interviews with
private bankers, tax lawyers, and crooks, Henry identified $21-$32 trillion of ‘missing’
wealth as of 2010. This provided The Economist's cover story on February 16, 2013.
numbers of this kind.’ Actually, economists have been estimating the volume of missing
offshore wealth for decades. For instance, in 2005 British economists Richard Murphy
and John Christensen produced a widely published $11.5 trillion estimate. In 2011
James S. Henry, formerly director of economic research for McKinsey & Co., was
commissioned by the Tax Justice Network to compile detailed estimates of offshore
private wealth. Triangulating with three independent methodologies, including
extensive statistical analysis and ‘investigative economics’ involving interviews with
private bankers, tax lawyers, and crooks, Henry identified $21-$32 trillion of ‘missing’
wealth as of 2010. This provided The Economist's cover story on February 16, 2013.
“Zucman leans heavily on one IMF survey of traded assets for
fifty countries, hunting
mismatches between assets and liabilities. This is incomplete. Many assets are not
unrecorded but misrecorded in the names of trustees or nominee directors, not beneficial
owners. Since there is a recorded owner, there is no mismatch, hence Zucman omits
this missing wealth. He also ignores some $5-$10 trillion of offshore non-financial
assets like real estate, art, yachts, and gold.
mismatches between assets and liabilities. This is incomplete. Many assets are not
unrecorded but misrecorded in the names of trustees or nominee directors, not beneficial
owners. Since there is a recorded owner, there is no mismatch, hence Zucman omits
this missing wealth. He also ignores some $5-$10 trillion of offshore non-financial
assets like real estate, art, yachts, and gold.
“So Zucman's $7.6 trillion
estimate of offshore wealth (in 2014 dollars) is way too
low. His estimate for Latin America is just $700 billion, and for Argentina $100
billion. In contrast, recent studies by Argentine economists working with Henry have
uncovered over $400 billion of offshore wealth for Argentina alone. Similar gaps
exist for Russia, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, and China, where $500 billion
low. His estimate for Latin America is just $700 billion, and for Argentina $100
billion. In contrast, recent studies by Argentine economists working with Henry have
uncovered over $400 billion of offshore wealth for Argentina alone. Similar gaps
exist for Russia, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, and China, where $500 billion
fled the country just in 2015. Zucman underplays the crucial role of bankers and other
enablers
in the global haven industry. As detailed in Henry's report - soon to be updated - the top fifty global
banks were responsible for soliciting and concealing at least $12 trillion of the $21-$32 trillion, on behalf of the world's elite. Ironically, many of these institutions helped create the 2008 financial crisis, and would not have survived without taxpayer- funded bailouts.
in the global haven industry. As detailed in Henry's report - soon to be updated - the top fifty global
banks were responsible for soliciting and concealing at least $12 trillion of the $21-$32 trillion, on behalf of the world's elite. Ironically, many of these institutions helped create the 2008 financial crisis, and would not have survived without taxpayer- funded bailouts.
Sunstein is also.wrong to laud recent US tax enforcement efforts. Banks like UBS and Credit Suisse, caught red-handed facilitating tax
dodging in the US, received light penalties. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act
(FATCA) helps preserve the US as a
haven by offering very limited reciprocity to other countries. This threatens
to undermine the OECD's far more comprehensive global plan for information-sharing. Indeed, as
any offshore wealth adviser knows, illicit money from across
the planet is pouring into tax haven USA.
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John Christensen'
Executive Director Tax Justice Network London, England |
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James Henry
Senior Fellow Columbia University New York City |
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Cass R. Sunstein replies:
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“I am grateful for the response by John Christensen and James Henry of the
Tax Justice Network (TJN), but also puzzled by it. Gabriel Zucman and I are in fundamental agreement with the TJN: tax havens are an extremely serious problem and far more needs to be
done about them.
“The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act is a significant step in the right direction, because
it requires all foreign banks to identify any
American citizens among their clients-and to disclose to the Internal Revenue Service the amount of their holdings and any
dividends and interest paid on them. (The US Department of Treasury has done, and continues to
do, a great deal of work on the issue of reciprocity.) With Zucman, I agree that FATCA is not nearly enough, because a global solution is required.
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I stand by my claim about Zucman's
originality.
Citing their own work, Christensen and Henry claim that they
were there first, and they have indeed made valuable
contributions. But ‘investigative economics,’
extrapolating numbers from ‘interviews with private bankers,
tax lawyers, and crooks,’ involves a high degree of
speculation, and the numbers in Henry's illuminating report,
commissioned and published by the TJN, lack the rigor and care
of Zucman's peer-reviewed estimates. I agree, however, that
his estimates may be too low.”
Citing their own work, Christensen and Henry claim that they
were there first, and they have indeed made valuable
contributions. But ‘investigative economics,’
extrapolating numbers from ‘interviews with private bankers,
tax lawyers, and crooks,’ involves a high degree of
speculation, and the numbers in Henry's illuminating report,
commissioned and published by the TJN, lack the rigor and care
of Zucman's peer-reviewed estimates. I agree, however, that
his estimates may be too low.”
