Thursday, May 5, 2016

DEMOCRATS NOW COMPETITIVE AMONG TOP 20 PERCENT

Democrats are now competitive among the top 20 percent. This has changed the economic makeup of the Democratic Party and is certain to intensify tensions between the traditional downscale wing and the emergent upscale wing.



Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.


WEALTHY VOTERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DEMOCRATIC
“At the same time that lifestyle and consumption habits of the affluent diverge from those of the middle and working class, wealthy voters are becoming increasingly Democratic, often motivated by their culturally liberal views. A comparison of exit poll data from 1984 to 1988 to data from the 2008 to 2012 elections reveals the changing partisan makeup of the top quintile.
“In the 1980s, voters in the top ranks of the income ladder lined up in favor of Republican presidential candidates by 2-1. In 1988, for example, George H.W. Bush crushed Michael Dukakis among voters making $100,000 or more by an impressive 34 points, 67-33.
“Move forward to 2008 and 2012. In 2008, voters from families making $100,000 to $200,000 split their votes 51-48 in favor of John McCain, while those making in excess of $200,000 cast a slight 52-46 majority for Barack Obama.”

Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.
TOP 20 PERCENT FORM SOLID WALL AGAINST REFORM


“As the top 20 percent becomes more isolated and entrenched, reforms designed to open opportunities for those in the middle and on the bottom ‘can all run into the solid wall of rational, self-interested upper middle class resistance,” [Richard] Reeves of the [Brookings Institution] argues.




Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.


83 PERCENT IN AFFLUENT HOMES ARE MARRIED
“ ‘Family structure, as a marker and predictor of family stability, makes a difference to the life chances of the next generation,’” [Richard] Reeves [of the Brookings Institution] writes:
“ ‘To the extent that upper middle class Americans are able to form planned, stable, committed families, their children will benefit — and be more likely to retain their childhood class status when they become adults.’
“Using 2013 census data, Reeves finds that 83 percent of affluent heads of household between the ages of 35 and 40 are married, compared with 65 percent in the third and fourth income quintiles and 33 percent in the bottom two.”


Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.
INEQUALITY GAPS SPREADING ACROSS THE RANGE OF AMERICAN LIFE
“In a September 2015 essay, ‘The Dangerous Separation of the American Upper Middle Class,’ Richard Reeves, a senior fellow at the Brookings [Institution], writes:
‘The top fifth have been prospering while the majority lags behind. But the separation is not just economic. Gaps are growing on a whole range of dimensions, including family structure, education, lifestyle, and geography. Indeed, these dimensions of advantage appear to be clustering more tightly together, each thereby amplifying the effect of the other.’
“The same pattern emerges in the case of education. Reeves cites data showing that 56 percent of heads of households in the top quintile have college or advanced degrees, compared with 34 percent in the third and fourth quintiles and 17 percent in the bottom two quintiles.


Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.
POLITICAL LEVERAGE GREATER FOR TOP 20 PERCENT
Political leverage is another factor separating the top 20 percent from the rest of America. The top quintile is equipped to exercise much more influence over politics and policy than its share of the electorate would suggest. Although by definition this group represents 20 percent of all Americans, it represents about 30 percent of the electorate, in part because of high turnout levels.
"Equally or perhaps more important, the affluent dominate the small percentage of the electorate that makes campaign contributions."


Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.
THREEFOLD INCREASE BY THE RICH IN SPENDING ON THEIR CHILDREN
“Timothy Smeeding, a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin, has explored how the top quintile is pulling away from the rest of society. In an essay published earlier this year ‘Gates, Gaps, and Intergenerational Mobility: The Importance of an Even Start,’ Smeeding finds that the gap between the average income of households with children in the top quintile and households with children in the middle quintile has grown, in inflation-adjusted dollars, from $68,600 to $169,300 — that’s 147 percent.
“In an earlier paper, Smeeding and two co-authors wrote that:
“ ‘we have seen a threefold increase between 1972 and 2007 in top-decile spending on children, an increase that suggests that parents at the top may be investing in ever more high-quality day care and babysitting, private schooling, books and tutoring, and college tuition and fees.’
“The bottom line, Smeeding wrote in an email, is this:
“‘The well-to-do are isolated from the day to day struggles of the middle class and below to provide these key services (health, education, job search and other opportunities) to aid the upward mobility of their children. But the upper middle class are happy to take advantage of tax subsidies for their own housing, preschool for their kids, and saving for college which benefit them.’”

Thomas B. Edsall, “How the Other Fifth Lives,” New York Times, April 27, 2016, Op-Ed Page.